廢雜銅紫銅管企業如何利用期貨市場進行保值

目(mu)前，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)消費量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)近(jin)1/3來(lai)(lai)自(zi)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回收(shou)(shou)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)。根據中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)有(you)(you)(you)色金(jin)(jin)屬加(jia)工(gong)協會(hui)(hui)提(ti)(ti)供的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據，2005年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)回收(shou)(shou)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)金(jin)(jin)屬量(liang)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)142萬噸(dun)(dun)，占(zhan)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)材消費量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)30.4%，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)約(yue)80萬噸(dun)(dun)以(yi)(yi)非精煉銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)或銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)合金(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)形式直(zhi)接使用(yong)(yong)(yong)。雖(sui)然廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)和(he)電解銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌方(fang)向一(yi)致，二(er)(er)者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關聯性能達到95%以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)，但由于(yu)(yu)(yu)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供求(qiu)情(qing)(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)和(he)電解銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)不(bu)(bu)(bu)盡相(xiang)同(tong)，二(er)(er)者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌幅(fu)度(du)經(jing)(jing)常(chang)出(chu)現(xian)偏差(cha)，導致廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)市(shi)場進(jin)行保(bao)值(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)效果(guo)并不(bu)(bu)(bu)理想。本文結合筆者(zhe)幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)來(lai)(lai)與(yu)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)接觸中(zhong)(zhong)所獲得的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)心得，談幾(ji)點對(dui)(dui)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)保(bao)值(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)看法。 　　一(yi)、廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)狀 　　1.行業(ye)(ye)(ye)狀況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang) 　　我國(guo)(guo)廢(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)(jing)過幾(ji)十年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發展，已經(jing)(jing)形成了(le)(le)(le)以(yi)(yi)民營企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)體、大(da)型企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)、中(zhong)(zhong)型企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)基(ji)礎(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構(gou)(gou)(gou)，以(yi)(yi)廢(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)直(zhi)接利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)、精煉電銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)輔(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構(gou)(gou)(gou)，以(yi)(yi)長(chang)江三(san)(san)角洲(zhou)(zhou)、珠江三(san)(san)角洲(zhou)(zhou)、環渤(bo)海(hai)地(di)區(qu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)重(zhong)點的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)格(ge)局，也(ye)已形成了(le)(le)(le)從(cong)(cong)回收(shou)(shou)、進(jin)口拆解到加(jia)工(gong)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)一(yi)條(tiao)龍(long)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)完(wan)(wan)整的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈。我國(guo)(guo)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)廢(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構(gou)(gou)(gou)呈金(jin)(jin)字塔(ta)型，利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)量(liang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)10萬噸(dun)(dun)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)只(zhi)有(you)(you)(you)2家：江西銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)公(gong)司和(he)寧波(bo)(bo)金(jin)(jin)田(tian)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(集團)有(you)(you)(you)限(xian)公(gong)司。5萬—10萬噸(dun)(dun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)(you)6家，而(er)年(nian)(nian)利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)廢(fei)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)5000噸(dun)(dun)以(yi)(yi)下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)小型再(zai)生(sheng)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)廠約(yue)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2000家，這(zhe)些(xie)小型企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)構(gou)(gou)(gou)成了(le)(le)(le)我國(guo)(guo)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)流。 　　2.企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)(jing)營情(qing)(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang) 　　由于(yu)(yu)(yu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)規模普遍偏小，一(yi)直(zhi)以(yi)(yi)來(lai)(lai)廢(fei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)大(da)多(duo)采用(yong)(yong)(yong)以(yi)(yi)產(chan)定(ding)銷(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)營模式，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)根據自(zi)身生(sheng)產(chan)能力以(yi)(yi)及對(dui)(dui)市(shi)場未來(lai)(lai)情(qing)(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預(yu)判決(jue)定(ding)采購數(shu)量(liang)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)產(chan)完(wan)(wan)成后(hou)根據市(shi)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)銷(xiao)售(shou)現(xian)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)。敲(qiao)定(ding)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)訂單(dan)和(he)遠期(qi)(qi)(qi)訂單(dan)數(shu)量(liang)較少。因此(ci)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)一(yi)般(ban)都(dou)會(hui)(hui)保(bao)有(you)(you)(you)10天到一(yi)個月不(bu)(bu)(bu)等的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)庫存(cun)已維持企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)常(chang)運(yun)轉(zhuan)。這(zhe)些(xie)庫存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2002年(nian)(nian)以(yi)(yi)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)中(zhong)(zhong)給(gei)(gei)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)營企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)了(le)(le)(le)幾(ji)百甚至上(shang)(shang)千萬元的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)(li)(li)潤。同(tong)時，由于(yu)(yu)(yu)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)始終處(chu)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)中(zhong)(zhong)，由于(yu)(yu)(yu)擔心再(zai)次采購將面(mian)對(dui)(dui)更(geng)(geng)高(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)，因此(ci)產(chan)品只(zhi)要不(bu)(bu)(bu)出(chu)現(xian)重(zhong)大(da)瑕疵，下(xia)游企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)一(yi)般(ban)都(dou)不(bu)(bu)(bu)會(hui)(hui)退貨(huo)(huo)(huo)。惡意(yi)(yi)(yi)退貨(huo)(huo)(huo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事(shi)件更(geng)(geng)是極(ji)少出(chu)現(xian)。 　　2002年(nian)(nian)以(yi)(yi)來(lai)(lai)，雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)經(jing)(jing)營企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)謂順風順水(shui)，銷(xiao)售(shou)不(bu)(bu)(bu)成問題。偶爾的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)庫存(cun)積壓不(bu)(bu)(bu)但不(bu)(bu)(bu)會(hui)(hui)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)風險，反而(er)常(chang)常(chang)能給(gei)(gei)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)意(yi)(yi)(yi)外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)驚喜。如此(ci)市(shi)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)加(jia)上(shang)(shang)兩個市(shi)場之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)影響了(le)(le)(le)保(bao)值(zhi)效果(guo)，因此(ci)很(hen)少有(you)(you)(you)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)愿(yuan)意(yi)(yi)(yi)進(jin)入期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)市(shi)場進(jin)行保(bao)值(zhi)。 　　二(er)(er)、高(gao)(gao)(gao)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)風險 　　LME銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)知不(bu)(bu)(bu)覺中(zhong)(zhong)已經(jing)(jing)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)到了(le)(le)(le)8000美金(jin)(jin)附近(jin)，較低點翻(fan)了(le)(le)(le)4倍還(huan)多(duo)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)如此(ci)高(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)但可(ke)能出(chu)現(xian)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)快速下(xia)跌的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險，銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)高(gao)(gao)(gao)位的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)激(ji)(ji)烈(lie)振蕩也(ye)在(zai)(zai)(zai)加(jia)大(da)雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)所面(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險。 　　1.價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)劇烈(lie)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險 　　經(jing)(jing)過前期(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)連續(xu)拉升(sheng)(sheng)后(hou)，上(shang)(shang)海(hai)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)主(zhu)(zhu)力合約(yue)2006年(nian)(nian)5月創下(xia)了(le)(le)(le)85500元/噸(dun)(dun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)歷史高(gao)(gao)(gao)點，此(ci)后(hou)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)(yu)歷史高(gao)(gao)(gao)點的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，就(jiu)像(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)煮開的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)熱水(shui)一(yi)樣沸騰起(qi)來(lai)(lai)，期(qi)(qi)(qi)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)(zai)(zai)60000—80000元/噸(dun)(dun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)寬廣區(qu)間(jian)內激(ji)(ji)烈(lie)振蕩。期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)但出(chu)現(xian)了(le)(le)(le)在(zai)(zai)(zai)期(qi)(qi)(qi)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)擴(kuo)停(ting)板(ban)后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)*連續(xu)三(san)(san)個跌停(ting)板(ban)，也(ye)出(chu)現(xian)了(le)(le)(le)連續(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)停(ting)行情(qing)(qing)(qing)。以(yi)(yi)往罕(han)見的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)日內波(bo)(bo)動(dong)上(shang)(shang)千元的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)激(ji)(ji)烈(lie)行情(qing)(qing)(qing)，現(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)更(geng)(geng)是屢(lv)(lv)屢(lv)(lv)出(chu)現(xian)。 　　但相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)(yu)高(gao)(gao)(gao)昂的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)激(ji)(ji)烈(lie)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)加(jia)工(gong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)(li)(li)潤并未出(chu)現(xian)明顯提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)。雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)收(shou)(shou)購價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)從(cong)(cong)原來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)200多(duo)元/噸(dun)(dun)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)到目(mu)前的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)500元/噸(dun)(dun)左右。光亮(liang)桿的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)加(jia)工(gong)費也(ye)只(zhi)從(cong)(cong)原來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)800元/噸(dun)(dun)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)到1500元/噸(dun)(dun)。這(zhe)種價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)水(shui)平根本沒辦法像(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)以(yi)(yi)往那樣彌補價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險。雜(za)(za)(za)(za)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)就(jiu)像(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)駭浪中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)葉扁舟(zhou)稍有(you)(you)(you)不(bu)(bu)(bu)慎就(jiu)有(you)(you)(you)可(ke)能傾覆。